When choosing a major in Australia, many students often start with questions like: “Which major is hot?”, “Which major is easy to get a job?” or “Which industry has the opportunity to develop?” However, there is another way to look at the labor market: instead of looking at the hot industries today, look at what Australian society will need in the next 10–20 years.
Aged Care – the elderly care sector – is a very notable example. According to CEDA, Australia may need at least 400,000 additional workers in the residential and in-home aged care sectors by 2050 to meet growing demand. CEDA also estimates that about 2.5 million people aged 65 and older will need some form of care by 2050, compared with about 1.5 million today.
Australia is entering a period of aging population
This is not a change that happens in a few years, but a long-term population trend. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), people aged 65 and over will make up about 17% of the Australian population in 2022. In the ABS population scenarios, this proportion is expected to increase to about 25–27% by 2071. The proportion of people aged 85 and over is also expected to increase from 2.1% to about 5.2–6.4%.
To put it simply: Australians live longer + the proportion of elderly people increases → the need for care also increases. And when the need for care increases, the story is not just about the number of care facilities or medical services. Australia needs people to deliver care.
By 2050, around 2.5 million people could need aged care
CEDA estimates the number of people aged 65 and over needing some form of care could increase from around 1.5 million today to 2.5 million by 2050. This includes the need for care in residential aged care facilities as well as in-home care care, which means the elderly are cared for right at home. Notably, CEDA believes that these estimates are likely to be conservative, as changes in the quality and quantity of care services, especially home care, may continue to increase the need for human resources.
Australia may need 400,000 more Aged Care workers
This is the most prominent number in the story. CEDA says Australia will need at least 400,000 additional workers in residential and in-home aged care by 2050 to meet demand. This is an estimate of a long-term workforce shortage, which does not mean Australia is short 400,000 people right now. In a 2021 study, CEDA estimated that if the workforce continues to grow at that rate, the shortage could reach more than 400,000 direct aged-care workers by 2050. This group includes direct care positions such as personal care assistants, nurses and some allied health professionals.
CEDA also estimated Australia needed about 17,000 additional direct aged-care workers per year over the decade to meet basic care standards researched at the time.
This is not just a story about Aged Care
What is more remarkable lies in the big picture of the Australian labor market. Jobs and Skills Australia said Health Care and Social Assistance is currently the largest sector in terms of employment and is expected to continue to experience strong employment growth over the next five and 10 years. A significant part of this growth comes from the growing older population, driving demand for health and aged care services. In its report on the care workforce, Jobs and Skills Australia also identified the aging population as one of the key drivers of increased demand for aged care services.
At an occupation level, CEDA cited Jobs and Skills Australia data as showing that Aged and Disability Carers are expected to be one of the highest growth occupational groups over the next decade based on service demand.
What jobs are in this field?
Aged Care is more than just one job position.
Some occupational groups related to the care field include:
- Aged or Disability Carer
- Personal Care Assistant
- Nursing Support Worker
- Nurses
- Some Allied Health groups
- Residential aged care and support positions care
- Home care positions
CEDA currently identifies three occupations at the heart of the Aged Care Industry Labor Agreement as Aged or Disability Carers, Personal Care Assistants and Nursing Support Workers.
Just because an industry has a need for human resources does not mean that “learning means you will definitely have PR”
This is a point students need to pay special attention to. When seeing numbers like 400,000 workers or “the industry is lacking human resources”, it is easy to deduce: “So just learning Aged Care is sure to have a job or PR.”
Should not be understood that way. Human resource needs, recruitment conditions, degree/certificate requirements, professional registration and visa policies are different issues.
CEDA itself also sees the shortage of human resources as a problem that requires many solutions, including domestic training, improving working conditions, enhancing the capacity of the current workforce and using migration when necessary. Additionally, Jobs and Skills Australia’s employment projections are projections based on current assumptions and trends, not guarantees of future employment.
So how should students view this story?
If you are choosing a major to study abroad in Australia, instead of just asking: “Which major is hot?” You can try asking another question: “In the next 10–20 years, what types of human resources will Australian society need?” Aged Care is a pretty clear example. Australia’s population is aging. The ABS expects the proportion of people aged 65 and over to continue to increase significantly over the long term. Meanwhile, CEDA estimates care demand could increase to about 2.5 million people by 2050 and Australia may need at least 400,000 more workers in residential and in-home aged care to meet demand.
That’s why Aged Care is not simply a “hot industry”. It reflects ahuge change in the population structure and needs of Australian society.
Studying abroad should not just start with the question “which major is easy?” A more long-term approach is to look at: Population → social needs → labor market → necessary skills → suitable major.
With Aged Care, the chain is quite clear: Aging population -> Many people need care more -> Demand for Aged Care services increases ->
Demand for human resources increases -> Job opportunities in the care sector are expected to continue to expand.
However, each student still needs to evaluate his/her own abilities, interests, career requirements, study costs, and career plans before choosing a major.
